A Bocconi-led study on Italy, Germany, the US and Argentina shows that fertility intentions depend not only on income, housing, childcare and gender roles, but also on confidence in the future. Economic crises, climate change, democratic instability and war shape whether parenthood feels safe and realistic. The findings suggest that falling birth rates cannot be addressed only through family policy: people need economic security, stable housing, trustworthy institutions and credible social futures.

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