by Arnstein Aassve, Full Professor of Demography
Translated by Alex Foti

Demography is the glacial science they say. And rightly so, trends in mortality, fertility and migration do not fluctuate much from year to year. But the last two years have been eventful for demography: the COVID pandemic brought a spike in mortality, especially for the older parts of the age distribution, leaving in its wake heartbreaking stories of trauma and despair as people watched, often from a distance, grandparents and loved ones perish to the virus. In many countries, life expectancy actually fell due to the pandemic. Though we are now facing a surge in COVID cases, it is fair to say that our societies are in a different situation compared to two years ago (that assumes of course, that no new sinister mutation of the virus appears in the near future). So what will the next year bring demographically speaking?

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